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US equities faced a third consecutive decline, with the S&P 500 experiencing its longest losing streak of the year amid investor caution over US-China tensions and tariff discussions. Despite this volatility, UBS anticipates a rebound, particularly in China's internet sector, driven by strong fundamentals and AI innovation. They maintain a year-end target of 6,600 points for the S&P 500, emphasizing the need for portfolio diversification and capital preservation strategies.
Smartphone sales in China surged nearly 18% year-on-year in January, driven by government subsidies for electronic devices, which are expected to boost growth by 2 to 3 percentage points in the first quarter. Sales approached 29 million units, particularly in the CNY2,000 to CNY5,000 range, with Huawei, Vivo, and Xiaomi dominating the market with a combined 53.8% share. The government introduced a 15% subsidy for devices under CNY6,000, encouraging price cuts and facilitating a shift towards generative AI models.
Warren Buffett's endorsement led to a significant rally in five Japanese trading houses, with shares rising between 4.7% and 8.8% after Berkshire Hathaway announced plans to increase its investment. Despite this boost, broader Asian markets declined due to US tariff threats and geopolitical tensions, with Japan's Nikkei 225 falling 1.4%. Concerns over macroeconomic risks and the impact on global trade continue to loom over the trading houses' prospects.
The Swiss Market Index (SMI) is expected to open little changed, while US markets closed mixed, with Berkshire Hathaway shares rising 4% after strong earnings. Asian equities fell amid concerns over US investment restrictions in China, and oil prices increased due to new US sanctions on Iran. In the US, the Dow gained slightly, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continued to decline, with Nvidia's upcoming earnings drawing attention. Alibaba shares dropped 10% amid trade dispute fears, while Rivian and Palantir also faced significant losses.
Huawei has captured over half of the foldable smartphone market in China in 2024, with the Mate X5 leading sales at 28.1%. The market grew by 27% year-on-year, driven by advancements in design and functionality that appeal to a broader consumer base, including women. Honor also gained traction with its successful foldable models, while overall foldable sales remain a small segment of the smartphone market.
UBS has raised its price target on eBay Inc. to $72 from $66 while maintaining a neutral rating. eBay operates a leading online marketplace, facilitating transactions for goods and services through various platforms, with significant sales coming from the U.S. (50.2%), U.K. (15.9%), and China (10.2%).
UBS has increased its price target for Marvell Technology Group Ltd to $125 from $115 while maintaining a Buy rating. The company specializes in integrated communications and storage circuits, with net sales primarily from data centers (40.2%) and enterprise networks (22.3%), among other sectors. Geographically, sales are dominated by China (43.1%) and the United States (14.4%).
SAIC has partnered with Huawei to develop and sell battery-powered electric vehicles, marking a strategic move as it faces declining sales and competition from BYD. The first model, expected to be the most affordable under the new brand, will feature Huawei's assisted driving system and is set to launch in Q4 2024, priced between RMB 150,000 and RMB 250,000. This collaboration aims to enhance SAIC's competitiveness in the rapidly evolving EV market.
UBS analyst Paul Gong upgraded XPeng's share rating from Sell to Neutral, raising the price target to $18 from $8.80, citing the company's AI potential despite its high valuation and competitive pressures. XPeng's stock has surged 162% in six months, but concerns remain over its financial health and market competition, particularly from BYD. Meanwhile, XPeng and Volkswagen are expanding their partnership to develop an ultra-fast charging network in China, enhancing their electric vehicle infrastructure.
UBS has upgraded XPeng's stock rating from Sell to Neutral, raising the price target from $8.80 to $18.00, as the company benefits from growing investor interest in AI. Despite a 162% stock increase over six months and strong sales momentum, concerns about high valuation and competitive pressures remain. In related news, the Chinese auto market experienced a 12% decline in car sales, while new energy vehicles saw a 10.5% increase. Volkswagen and XPeng are expanding their partnership to develop an ultra-fast charging network in China, enhancing their service offerings.
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ubs predicts stock rebound amid investor caution and tariff concerns
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ubs raises marvell technology price target to 125 keeps buy rating
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